Pigs Feet, China and Brexit

Aidan Campbell RCN Policy officer reflects on the journey to secure export approval for NI Pork products to China and what this might tell us about future trade deals post Brexit.

Photo by Laura Anderson on Unsplash

Back in November 2017 exports of pork from Northern Ireland to China began.  Dr Robert Huey the Department of Agriculture Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) Chief Veterinary Officer said:

“I am delighted that China’s certification agency, the CNCA has announced its final approval for Northern Ireland plants to export pork to China. I look forward to the commencement of exports.”

The DAERA Press Release tells us that this was the culmination of a five-year process of negotiation and lobbying involving the Department, DEFRA, the NI Bureau in China, the Food Standards Agency and the Industry.  It also involved 3 Ministerial visits to China by Michelle O’Neill and one Ministerial visit to China by Michelle McIlveen.  Two separate teams of inspectors from China visited Northern Ireland processing plants in 2015.  For the first time two processing plants in Northern Ireland can export all cuts of pork to China.  Importantly, this includes pigs trotters which are a low value product here but are highly valued in China.  This means that processors can now get a greater return on each carcase and the industry estimates this could be worth an additional £10M to the NI economy (yes that’s a remarkably round figure for an estimate). 

Now obviously this is a good news story for NI agri-food (although not for the pigs) but what’s it got to do with Brexit?  I’m no expert in international trade or food exports but surely this story tells us something about the future of trade in agricultural products.  Gaining access to new markets in Asia and elsewhere may not be as straightforward as some may hope.  The experience of securing approval for pork exports into China has hopefully given officials and the industry important insights into how to negotiate the bureaucratic hurdles.  China is the biggest market for UK pork outside the EU although the UK sold nearly three times as much pork to the EU compared to China in 2017.  So, if a favourable trade deal between the UK and the EU can’t be agreed serious work will be needed to replace any EU market share lost by UK producers as a result.

Mr Huey reflected on the complexity of this particular negotiation in evidence he gave to the Assembly Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs committee meeting on 30 June 2016, less than a week after the Brexit referendum.  He was responding to comments from South Down MLA Harold McKee about the delay in securing approval from China for imports of “fifth quarter” pork products.  Mr Huey said:

“Someone from the US once said to me that no one has the right to export products into their country and that they would make it as difficult for us as possible.  That is almost the way to think about it.  If you turn it round, how easy do we make it for imports from other third countries?  Not very easy might be the answer.  It is a dog-eat-dog world out there…The average trade deal takes somewhere between two and 10 years.”

Can NI grow its share of the Chinese pork market and how quickly can that be done?  Will Chinese producers raise their production levels and how might that impact future NI imports?  What bearing will Brexit have on trade with China after the UK has left the EU?  Will any of the extra income make its way down to the hard-pressed farmers who are producing the meat?  These are all questions producers and processors must balance as they make investment decisions.  A dog eat dog world seems to sum it up well.

"Most people living in rural communities in Northern Ireland are farmers – right?"

RCN Policy officer Aidan Campbell explores the data on the numbers of people employed directly in agriculture in rural Northern Ireland and what that might mean for future policy.

Most people living in rural communities in Northern Ireland are farmers – right?  It’s a question I was asked recently at a meeting with someone who wasn’t that au fait with rural NI.  Farming and farmers are still very important in rural areas.  They grow the majority of food that consumers eat and shape the rural environment but, as in all developed countries, the proportion of people in rural areas who are directly involved in agriculture has been reducing for decades. 

One way of thinking about this is to look at the data.  NI Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) produces population estimates broken down to Small Area level.  Small Areas are the smallest geography that population statistics are broken down into and there are 4,537 of them in Northern Ireland.  Small Areas are classified by NISRA as urban if 90% or more of the population are living within the boundaries of an urban settlement (population>5,000 people).  They’re classified as rural if 10% or less of the population are living within the boundaries of an urban settlement, and anything in between is classified as 'mixed urban/rural'.

The 2016 Mid-year Population Estimates for Small Areas can be combined with the Small Area level lookup table to create approximated population totals for Urban, Rural and Mixed areas for mid-2016.  This gives approximated population totals as follows:

Urban population	1 112 338
Rural population	666 497
Mixed urban/rural	83 315
Total population NI	1 862 150

Using this method approximately 36% of the population of Northern Ireland lives in rural areas.

The Agricultural Census in Northern Ireland 2017 identifies 48 704 people as the total agricultural labour force (this includes farmers, partners and directors, spouses and other workers employed directly in farming).  48 704 people employed directly in farming represents just over 7% of the approximate rural population of 666 497.  So over 93% of the rural population have no direct connection to agriculture. 

As I said at the beginning of this post agriculture is still important in rural communities.  It’s also important for the NI economy as agriculture supplies produce directly into the agri-food industry which is a large employment sector in NI terms (c. 80 000 people employed) and supports a range of related jobs and businesses.  However, these figures show that it’s important for policy makers to consider how they can develop the wider rural economy. 

The people who are no longer directly employed in agriculture are working in construction, manufacturing, agri-food, the public sector or service sector and are increasingly commuting to regional towns and cities to work.  That’s not even to mention the low paid or unpaid care work undertaken overwhelmingly by women in rural communities which will become more important in years to come as rural populations age. 

Economic and regional development strategies must meet the diverse needs of rural citizens and prioritise connectivity.  It’s crucial to ensure that any rural development policy post-Brexit is not merely an adjunct to a price support policy for farming.  Rural populations are increasingly diverse and the share of people who receive part of their income from agriculture is likely to continue to decrease as small farms are consolidated.

For more details you can contact Aidan on 028 8676 6670 or email aidan@ruralcommunitynetwork.org. You can also visit our website www.ruralcommunitynetwork.org